Ahh, the fall of 2006. Things were looking good for the Blue Jays. They were coming off an 87-75 season, and had finally managed to finish ahead of Boston in the AL East. Vernon Wells was a key part of this result, having put together the best season of his career with a .303/.357/.542 line with 32 homeruns and 106 RBI. This was good for 6.7 WAR (B-R) (5.8 on FG), which was tied for 4th highest in the AL. The Blue Jays decided they had to lock him up long term and signed him to a 7 year deal worth 126 million, making him one of the highest paid players in baseball. At the time, Alex Rios was also coming off his best season in the majors, producing 3.4 WAR (3.6 on FG) in his third full-time season. Together it looked like the Blue Jays had their outfield all set up for the long term.
In 2007, however, things started to falter. Vernon Wells slumped through the year with a .245/.304/.402, producing only 1.9 WAR. Luckily for the Blue Jays though, Alex Rios improved upon the previous season's play and put up 4.5 WAR. This performance was good enough for the Blue Jays to extend him in April of 08 to a 7 year deal of his own, worth just under $70 million. Not on par with the deal Wells got, but still nothing to sneeze at.
Then in 2008, Wells couldn't seem to stay healthy, but was more effective in limited time, posting 2 WAR. His defense wasn't the same anymore, but he showed that he could still put up pretty good offensive numbers. Rios had a solid season as well, although his power dropped compared to '07. (Rios' season brings up a very interesting discrepancy between the WAR numbers on Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs. B-R has his WAR listed at 2.2, while FG has it at 5.6, the highest mark of his career. If I had to pick one that I feel is more accurate, I would lean more towards FG's, but I really don't think it should be that high. I think somewhere around 4 would be more accurate.)
2009 was where it really went bad for the two cornerstones of the Blue Jays outfield. Wells slumped his way through another unimpressive season, posting 0.3 WAR above replacement. By this time, his CF play was well below average, and possibly the worst in the majors. Rios meanwhile, was playing so poor that in August the Blue Jays allowed the White Sox to claim him off waivers outright. It was hard to imagine that they would allow the guy that they had signed to a 7 year deal only 18 months prior to leave without receiving anything in return, except when you look at his stats. At the time of the waiver claim, Rios had produced a grand total of -1.3 WAR and was one of the worst everyday players in baseball. Things were grim.
Wells and Rios both had a bit of a resurgence in 2010. Wells rediscovered his power stroke, and ended up posting an above average 4.4 WAR for the Blue Jays. Rios provided 3 WAR for the White Sox. It was looking like both players were turning their careers around. It turns out that Wells' productive season was really the best gift he could have ever gotten the Jays, as they were able to unload him and his bloated contract on the Angels in the off-season. Both keystones of the Jays' outfield were now gone.
This brings us to 2011. Both Rios and Wells are having atrocious seasons. They both rank in the bottom 10 everyday players in baseball according to WAR. (Using FG WAR) They have the two lowest OBP's in baseball. They also have the two lowest BABIP's of anyone in baseball. Bad luck could be playing a part in their decline, but if I had to go off my gut feeling, I would say that neither will ever produce more than 2 WAR in a season under their current contracts. The Blue Jays' franchise players have both turned into nearly the worst players in baseball. The good news for me as a Blue Jays fan is that they're doing it for someone else.
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