Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Top 25 Highest Paid Players and WAR

I found this list of MLB's 25 highest paid players in 2011* and decided to take a look at their WAR values for this season to determine which players are providing the best value for their salary so far, and which ones are just dead weight. I averaged out each players' WAR value from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference, just to get a better overall look. Now obviously some of the players on this list have been injured this year, and I haven't taken this into account, but that's part of the gamble when you're signing a player to a huge contract.

Rank Player Team 2011 Salary B-R WAR FG WAR AVG WAR $/WAR
8 Roy Halladay Phillies $20,000,000 6.4 7.2 6.8 $2,941,176
21 Matt Holliday Cardinals $16,317,774 4.4 5.1 4.75 $3,435,321
19 Josh Beckett Red Sox $17,000,000 5.6 3.6 4.6 $3,695,652
8 Miguel Cabrera Tigers $20,000,000 5.1 4.8 4.95 $4,040,404
3 CC Sabathia Yankees $24,285,714 5.5 6.2 5.85 $4,151,404
11 Carlos Beltran Mets $19,325,436 3.1 3.6 3.35 $5,768,787
22 Michael Young Rangers $16,174,974 2.2 3.4 2.8 $5,776,776
12 Carlos Lee Astros $19,000,000 3.4 2.6 3 $6,333,333
7 Todd Helton Rockies $20,275,000 3 3 3 $6,758,333
4 Mark Teixeira Yankees $23,125,000 2.4 4 3.2 $7,226,563
23 Jake Peavy White Sox $16,000,000 0.9 2.6 1.75 $9,142,857
1 Alex Rodriguez Yankees $32,000,000 3 3.9 3.45 $9,275,362
15 Torii Hunter Angels $18,500,000 1.5 2.1 1.8 $10,277,778
23 Roy Oswalt Phillies $16,000,000 1.2 1.7 1.45 $11,034,483
8 Ryan Howard Phillies $20,000,000 2.2 1.3 1.75 $11,428,571
5 Joe Mauer Twins $23,000,000 1.3 1.3 1.3 $17,692,308
12 Alfonso Soriano Cubs $19,000,000 1 1.1 1.05 $18,095,238
14 Carlos Zambrano Cubs $18,875,000 0.8 1 0.9 $20,972,222
20 A.J. Burnett Yankees $16,500,000 0 1 0.5 $33,000,000
17 Jason Bay Mets $18,125,000 0.4 0.1 0.25 $72,500,000
6 Johan Santana Mets $21,644,707 0 0 0 NA
25 John Lackey Red Sox $15,950,000 -1 1 0 NA
18 Ichiro Suzuki Mariners $18,000,000 -0.6 -0.1 -0.35 ($51,428,571)
15 Barry Zito Giants $18,500,000 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 ($61,666,667)
2 Vernon Wells Angels $26,187,500 -0.5 -0.1 -0.3 ($87,291,667)

So there you have it, of the top 25 highest payed players in the majors, Roy Halladay is providing the best value for his team in 2011 - providing 6.8 wins above replacement on a salary of $20 million. That works out to be just under $3 million/WAR. Coming in second, somewhat surprisingly, is Matt Holliday. It's hard to say how his contract will pan out by the end of 2016 when he's 36, but the Cards have got their money's worth in the first two years.

Completely unsurprisingly, the player providing the worst value for his salary is none other than Vernon Wells. He's getting the second most money in baseball this year, and he's cost his team 0.3 of a win. Do I need to mention again how amazing that trade was for the Blue Jays?

For teams as a whole, here's how the ones who have more than one player on the list average out:

Phillies - $56 million for 3 players - Halladay, Oswalt and Howard - for 10 total WAR - $5.6 million/WAR

Red Sox - $33 million for 2 players - Beckett and Lackey - for 4.6 total WAR (all from Beckett) - $7.2 million/WAR

Yankees - $95 million for 4 players - A-Rod, Sabathia, Burnett and Teixeira - for 13 total WAR - $7.4 million/WAR

Mets - $59 million for 2 players - Beltran (I'm including all of Beltran's WAR for the Mets) and Santana (who's missed the whole year) - for a total of 3.6 WAR - $16.4 million/WAR

Cubs - $38 million for 2 players - Zambrano and Soriano - for 1.95 total WAR - $19.4 million/WAR

Angels - $45 million for 2 players - Wells and Hunter - for a total of 1.5 WAR - $29.8 million/WAR

Is it coincidence that the 3 highest ranked teams will make the playoffs this year, while the latter 3 will miss them? (I realize the Angels still have a chance to make it. I do not know how they are able to accomplish this while committing so much money to two horrible outfielders, but somehow they do.)


*http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/baseball/mlb/salaries/player/top-25

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